From 0a087888cd961c208343e0da61b50d075bd74b0e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: "Carlos R. Mercado" <107061601+charlieflipside@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Thu, 8 Sep 2022 11:12:49 -0400
Subject: [PATCH]  in progress

---
 MKR_delegate_targeting.Rmd | 215 ++++++++++
 mkr_holders_screenshot.png | Bin 0 -> 22183 bytes
 renv.lock                  | 780 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 3 files changed, 995 insertions(+)
 create mode 100644 MKR_delegate_targeting.Rmd
 create mode 100644 mkr_holders_screenshot.png

diff --git a/MKR_delegate_targeting.Rmd b/MKR_delegate_targeting.Rmd
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..6fd5d22
--- /dev/null
+++ b/MKR_delegate_targeting.Rmd
@@ -0,0 +1,215 @@
+---
+title: "Understanding MKR spread for Delegate Targeting"
+author: "Carlos Mercado"
+date: '2022-08-30'
+output:
+  html_document:
+    code_folding: hide
+editor_options: 
+  chunk_output_type: console
+---
+
+# Intro
+
+Flipside's governance team works deeply with the MakerDAO team to create, discuss, and vote on proposals that
+ultimately improve Maker's market position and revenue model. In order to increase our influence 
+at Maker, we seek delegation of MKR to our voting address.
+
+This markdown details use of the new Flipside `ethscore` package to identify potential
+addresses to target to request/earn delegation of their MKR to our voting address.
+
+# Package Requirements
+
+ethscore uses shroomDK to access Flipside data for its analysis. The best way to install these 
+packages is via devtools install_github().
+
+```{r, eval = FALSE,  message = FALSE, warning= FALSE}
+# This chunk does not eval
+# library(devtools) # install if you haven't already
+# devtools::install_github(repo = 'FlipsideCrypto/sdk', subdir = 'r/shroomDK')
+# devtools::install_github(repo = 'FlipsideCrypto/ethscore')
+```
+
+# Addressable Market of MKR Delegation
+
+Not all holders of an ERC20 are externally owned accounts (EOAs). Some are contract addresses,
+others are gnosis-safes. Among EOAs, there are central exchange managed EOAs for coordinating deposits and withdrawals
+on and off chain which would be inappropriate targets for delegation. Also some EOAs are 'cold storage' in that they hold a balance but have never initiated a transaction. If an EOA has never done a transaction, it is unlikely its first 
+will be delegation of a token which requires approvals and other contract interactions that the user may find risky.
+
+Thus, for the purposes of growing our delegation, it is imperative we understand the addressable market
+as: 
+
+    - EOAs that are active and likely human owned
+    - Gnosis safes, e.g., DAO multi-sigs.
+    - MKR in the delegate contract(s)
+        - Note: this is 'pvp' in that each MKR we are delegated from this contract is explicitly a MKR taken from another delegate. While we support competition, our first goal is to activate more MKR, not simply fight over a fixed pool.  
+    
+## Current balance of MKR held by those with 1+ MKR
+
+'Dust' is common in crypto. Users make swaps of non-integer sizes and end up with balances that use many of the 
+18 decimals permitted by ERC20s, e.g., having 0.0042069 MKR (~ $3 at time of writing). This naturally inflates 
+the 'holders' number we commonly see in tools like etherscan.
+
+![Etherscan screenshot of MKR Holders](mkr_holders_screenshot.png)
+
+Of the 87,000 Holders of MKR, only 6,375 (7%) have at least 1 whole MKR (~$700 at time of writing).
+Given that MKR uses on-chain voting on the Ethereum Layer 1, it may be cost prohibitive in ETH gas 
+terms for smaller holders to delegate and vote on-chain.
+
+```{r, message = FALSE, warning= FALSE}
+library(shroomDK)
+library(ethscore)
+library(dplyr)
+library(reactable)
+library(plotly)
+
+
+mkr <- tolower("0x9f8f72aa9304c8b593d555f12ef6589cc3a579a2")
+max_block <- 15440000 # August 30th 11AM UTC
+api_key <- readLines("api_key.txt") # get a free key @ https://sdk.flipsidecrypto.xyz/shroomdk
+
+mkr_balances <- address_token_balance(token_address = mkr, min_tokens = 1, 
+                                      block_max = max_block, api_key = api_key)
+
+message(
+  paste0('There are ', nrow(mkr_balances), ' holders of MKR with at least 1 MKR (as of block: ', max_block, ")")
+)
+
+plot_ly(mkr_balances, x = ~ADDRESS_TYPE, y = ~log(NEW_VALUE), color = ~ADDRESS_TYPE,
+        boxpoints = "all", jitter = 0.3,
+        hoverinfo = 'text',
+        hovertext = ~paste0(
+          'Log-MKR Balance: ',
+          round(log(NEW_VALUE), 2),'\n Raw MKR Balance: ', 
+          scales::label_comma()(floor(NEW_VALUE))
+        ),
+        type = 'box') %>% 
+  layout(title = '\nDistribution of MKR among those with 1+ MKR',
+         xaxis = list(title = 'Address Type'),
+         yaxis = list(title = 'LOG(MKR Balance)')
+  )
+
+```
+
+Because holdings of most ERC20s is highly skewed (i.e., most addresses have very few MKR and a few have very large amounts)
+a LOG scale is used to more cleanly see differences in the distribution of MKR across Address Types.
+
+The key insights to note:
+
+    - Non-targets like contracts, cold storage EOAs, and central exchange EOAs have a wide variance in their MKR holdings.
+    - Target EOAs (Orange, hover over to see non-LOG values) have a median of 2 MKR each and a 75% percentile of ~95 MKR.
+    - The top holders of MKR are contracts and central exchange EOAs.
+
+In practical terms, of the 977,000 MKR total supply held by 87,000 holders (Etherscan above), there are only 
+5,150 EOAs active and with enough MKR (1+) to be delegate targets. These EOAs hold 356,015 MKR, only 36% of supply.
+
+
+```{r}
+mkr_smmry <- mkr_balances %>% group_by(ADDRESS_TYPE) %>% 
+  summarise(num = n(),
+            total = scales::label_comma()(floor(sum(NEW_VALUE))),
+            avg = scales::label_comma()(floor(mean(NEW_VALUE))), 
+            median = scales::label_comma()(floor(median(NEW_VALUE))),
+            max = scales::label_comma()(floor(max(NEW_VALUE))),
+            sd = scales::label_comma()(floor(sd(NEW_VALUE))))
+
+reactable(mkr_smmry,
+columns = list(
+  ADDRESS_TYPE = colDef(name = 'Address Type'),
+  num = colDef(name = 'Count', align = 'right'),
+  total = colDef(name = 'Total', align = 'right'),
+  avg = colDef(name = 'Average', align = 'right'),
+  median = colDef(name = 'Median', align = 'right'),
+  max = colDef(name = 'Max', align = 'right'),
+  sd = colDef(name = 'Standard Deviation', align = 'right')
+))
+
+```
+
+The MKR governance contract: 0x0a3f6849f78076aefaDf113F5BED87720274dDC0 held 188,866 MKR as of 
+block 15440000. The Largest contract and overall address holder of maker. 
+
+This means of the total 977,631 MKR: 544,881 (~56%) is practically available for delegation.
+
+
+```{r}
+message(
+  paste0(
+    'MKR Governance Contract has ',
+    scales::label_comma()(floor(mkr_balances[
+      mkr_balances$ADDRESS == tolower('0x0a3f6849f78076aefaDf113F5BED87720274dDC0'), "NEW_VALUE"]
+    )), 
+    ' MKR'
+)
+)
+```
+
+Combining 
+
+## Time-Weighted MKR Holders
+
+Instead of analyzing holders based on current balance on MKR, we can add weight for *having held* MKR 
+for a long time. For example, weighing a user whose held 10 MKR for 10,000 blocks as a better delegate
+target than one who has held 100 MKR for only 100 blocks.
+
+Giving users 1 point per MKR for every 1,000 blocks where they held at least 0.1 MKR 
+in the range of Jan 1, 2021 (block #:11,566,000) to 
+Aug 30th 11am UTC (block # 15,440,000).
+
+```{r,  message = FALSE, warning= FALSE}
+
+min_block <- 11566000
+
+mkr_timeweighted <- address_time_weighted_token_balance(mkr,
+                                                        min_tokens =  0.1,
+                                                        block_min = min_block, 
+                                                        block_max = max_block,
+                                                        amount_weighting = TRUE,
+                                                        api_key = api_key 
+                                                        )
+
+plot_ly(mkr_timeweighted, x = ~ADDRESS_TYPE, y = ~log(TIME_WEIGHTED_SCORE),
+        color = ~ADDRESS_TYPE,
+        boxpoints = "all", jitter = 0.3,
+        hoverinfo = 'text',
+        hovertext = ~paste0(
+          'Log-MKR TW Score: ',
+          round(log(TIME_WEIGHTED_SCORE), 2),
+          '\n Raw MKR TW Score: ',
+          scales::label_comma()(floor(TIME_WEIGHTED_SCORE))
+        ),
+        type = 'box') %>% 
+  layout(title = '\nDistribution of MKR Time Weighted Scoring',
+         xaxis = list(title = 'Address Type'),
+         yaxis = list(title = 'LOG(MKR TW Score)')
+  )
+
+# merging and imputing current balance 0 to compare tw score and balance
+mkr_tw_bal <- merge(x = mkr_timeweighted[, c("ADDRESS","TIME_WEIGHTED_SCORE","ADDRESS_TYPE")],
+                    y = mkr_balances[,c("ADDRESS","NEW_VALUE")],
+                    all.x = TRUE, by = "ADDRESS")
+
+mkr_tw_bal$NEW_VALUE[is.na(mkr_tw_bal$NEW_VALUE)] <- 0
+
+plot_ly(mkr_tw_bal, x = ~log(NEW_VALUE), y = ~log(TIME_WEIGHTED_SCORE), 
+        color = ~ADDRESS_TYPE, type = 'scatter',
+        hoverinfo = 'text',
+        hovertext = ~paste0(
+          'RAW-MKR Balance: ',
+          scales::label_comma()(floor(NEW_VALUE)),
+          '\n Raw MKR TW Score: ',
+          scales::label_comma()(floor(TIME_WEIGHTED_SCORE))
+        )
+) %>% 
+  layout(title = '\n Current MKR Balance vs Time-Weighted Score',
+         xaxis = list(title = 'LOG(Current MKR Balance)'),
+         yaxis = list(title = 'LOG(MKR TW Score)')
+  )
+
+
+```
+
+## Recent Accumulators 
+
+TODO
diff --git a/mkr_holders_screenshot.png b/mkr_holders_screenshot.png
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diff --git a/renv.lock b/renv.lock
index 312f3d1..8b53b58 100644
--- a/renv.lock
+++ b/renv.lock
@@ -9,6 +9,571 @@
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+      ]
+    },
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+      "Source": "Repository",
+      "Repository": "CRAN",
+      "Hash": "4ab2c43adb4d4699cf3690acd378d75d",
+      "Requirements": [
+        "R6",
+        "Rcpp",
+        "later",
+        "magrittr",
+        "rlang"
+      ]
+    },
+    "purrr": {
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+      "Version": "0.3.4",
+      "Source": "Repository",
+      "Repository": "CRAN",
+      "Hash": "97def703420c8ab10d8f0e6c72101e02",
+      "Requirements": [
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+      "Hash": "5e3c5dc0b071b21fa128676560dbe94d",
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+    },
     "renv": {
       "Package": "renv",
       "Version": "0.15.5",
@@ -16,6 +581,221 @@
       "Repository": "CRAN",
       "Hash": "6a38294e7d12f5d8e656b08c5bd8ae34",
       "Requirements": []
+    },
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+        "jquerylib",
+        "jsonlite",
+        "knitr",
+        "stringr",
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+        "xfun",
+        "yaml"
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+      "Source": "GitHub",
+      "RemoteType": "github",
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+      "RemoteUsername": "Flipsidecrypto",
+      "RemoteRef": "HEAD",
+      "RemoteSha": "7f06948b1e34d1248fbcef8db7263f45e0d36492",
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   }
 }